Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Thunga River Basin Karnataka

International Journal of Agriculture & Environmental Science

© 2021 by SSRG - IJAES Journal

Volume 8 Issue 5

Year of Publication : 2021

Authors : M.A. Manjunatha Swamy, Mr. Chandrashekarayya G. Hiremath, Dr. B. Venktesh

10.14445/23942568/IJAES-V8I5P101

How to Cite?

M.A. Manjunatha Swamy, Mr. Chandrashekarayya G. Hiremath, Dr. B. Venktesh, "Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Thunga River Basin Karnataka," SSRG International Journal of Agriculture & Environmental Science, vol. 8,  no. 5, pp. 1-8, 2021. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/23942568/IJAES-V8I5P101

Abstract:

Climate change affects the environment and natural resources. Rainfall, Temperature and Evapo-Transpiration are major parameters affected by climate change in the environment. This study uses SWAT model for estimation of water flow in future for Thunga river basin of 2413sq-km. Spatial and metrological data was used as input for the model to calculate the runoff at watershed outlet. The calibration and validation was carried out by using manual calibration method, performance of model is evaluated using correlation coefficient and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient technique. The future river runoff is estimated using GCM outputs of precipitation and temperature data for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The runoff for 79 years period (2020-2099) is estimated. The maximum daily discharge for RCP4.5 is lesser than the RCP8.5scenario. Decade mean discharge for RCP4.5 shows almost constant trend line up to mid-century; increasing trend line from 2060. However, in RCP8.5 initially trend line decreases up to mid-century and increases again draws down from 2050 to 2070. It has increased again up to end of century. Dependable observed discharge is less than the dependable flow of future period for both the scenarios at50%, 75% and 90% probability of exceedance. After analyzing results we can conclude that the water availability in future years will be more than the 21% of present water availability, so there is a requirement of proper watershed management plans and further developmental activities in Thunga river basin.

Keywords:

SWAT, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios, Probability of Exceedance.

References:

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