Predictions of Groundwater Variations Using Regression Analysis in Delhi

International Journal of Civil Engineering
© 2025 by SSRG - IJCE Journal
Volume 12 Issue 1
Year of Publication : 2025
Authors : Kusum Choudhary, Ravish Kumar
pdf
How to Cite?

Kusum Choudhary, Ravish Kumar, "Predictions of Groundwater Variations Using Regression Analysis in Delhi," SSRG International Journal of Civil Engineering, vol. 12,  no. 1, pp. 36-45, 2025. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/23488352/IJCE-V12I1P105

Abstract:

This study aims to predict groundwater variations in the Delhi region that are experiencing severe challenges due to rapid urbanization and over-extraction. Groundwater resources are essential for the water supply of cities’ agriculture and industries, yet they are under significant pressure. By applying regression analysis, we analyzed groundwater level data from 2001 to 2020 to forecast trends up to 2040. The study results indicate a steady decline in groundwater levels, with predictions showing a drop from 13.22 meters in 2021 to 33.33 meters by 2040. This research is significant as it not only provides a quantitative assessment of groundwater depletion but also highlights the urgent need for sustainable management practices. The novelty of the study lies in its amalgamation of historical data, with predictive modeling offering a compressive approach to understanding groundwater dynamics in urban areas. The study findings have wider implications for policymakers and urban planners in developing long-term strategies for water security.

Keywords:

Coefficient of determination (R²), Ground water, Prediction, P-value (Probability value), Regression analysis.

References:

[1] Aiguo Dai et al., “A New Mechanism for Warm-Season Precipitation Response to Global Warming Based on Convection-Permitting Simulations,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 55, no. 1, pp. 1-26, 2020.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[2] Ajay Ajay, and Prasanta Sanyal, “An Increase in Domestic Tap Water Consumption Led to a Decline in the Groundwater Reserves of Delhi,” EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Vienna, Austria, 2023.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[3] Leonard F. Konikow, and Eloise Kendy, “Groundwater Depletion: A Global Problem,” Hydrogeology Journal, vol. 13, pp. 317-320, 2005.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[4] Yoshihide Wada et al., “Global Monthly Water Stress: 2. Water Demand and Severity of Water Stress,” Water Resources Research, vol. 47, no. 7, pp. 1-17, 2011.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[5] Tom Gleeson et al., “Water Balance of Global Aquifers Revealed by Groundwater Footprint,” Nature, vol. 488, pp. 197-200, 2012.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[6] Petra Döll et al., “Global‐Scale Assessment of Groundwater Depletion and Related Groundwater Abstractions: Combining Hydrological Modeling with Information from Well Observations and GRACE Satellites,” Water Resources Research, vol. 50, no. 7, pp. 5698-5720, 2014.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[7] M. Rodell et al., “Emerging Trends in Global Freshwater Availability,” Nature, vol. 557, pp. 651-659, 2018.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[8] Nishan Bhattarai et al., “Warming Temperatures Exacerbate Groundwater Depletion Rates in India,” Science Advances, vol. 9, no. 35, pp. 1-9, 2023.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[9] Shekhar Singh et al., Declining Groundwater Level and its Impact on Irrigation and Agro-Production, Advancement of GI- Science and Sustainable Agriculture, Springer, Cham, pp. 217-224, 2023.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[10] Meir Alkon et al., “High-Resolution Prediction and Explanation of Groundwater Depletion across India,” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 19, no. 4, pp. 1-11, 2024.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[11] Ghasem Panahi et al., “Prediction of Groundwater Level Fluctuations under Climate Change Based on Machine Learning Algorithms in the Mashhad Aquifer, Iran,” Journal of Water and Climate Change, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 1039-1059, 2023.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[12] Bhagavathi Krishnan Ramesh, and Sankararajan Vanitha, “Exploring Groundwater Quality Trends in Valliyar Sub-Basin, Kanniyakumari District, India through Advanced Machine Learning,” Water, vol. 16, no. 11, pp. 1-27, 2024.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[13] K. Satish Kumar, and E. Venkata Rathnam, “Analysis and Prediction of Groundwater Level Trends using Four Variations of Mann Kendall Tests and ARIMA Modelling,” Journal of the Geological Society of India, vol. 94, no. 3, pp. 281-289, 2019.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[14] Wadslin Frenelus, “Trends in Forecasting Groundwater Ingresses into Underground Structures,” International Journal of Hydrology, vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 100-104, 2024.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[15] Dilip Kumar Roy et al., “Groundwater Level Forecast via a Discrete Space-State Modelling Approach as a Surrogate to Complex Groundwater Simulation,” Water Resources Management, vol. 35, pp. 1653-1672, 2021.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[16] C.J. Gandy et al., “Predictive Modelling of Groundwater Abstraction and Artificial Recharge of Cooling Water,” Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, vol. 43, no. 3, pp. 279-288, 2010.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[17] Rohit Goyal, and A.N. Arora, “Predictive Modelling of Groundwater Flow of Indira Gandhi Nahar Pariyojna, Stage I,” ISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 119-128, 2012.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[18] Mukta Sharma, Groundwater Analytics for Measuring Quality and Quantity, Geospatial Technology and Smart Cities, Springer, Cham, pp. 415-430, 2021.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[19] Rana Chatterjee et al., “Dynamic Groundwater Resources of National Capital Territory, Delhi: Assessment, Development and Management Options,” Environmental Earth Sciences, vol. 59, pp. 669-686, 2009.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[20] Shashank Shekhar, “An Approximate Projection of Availability of the Fresh Groundwater Resources in the South West District of NCT Delhi, India: A Case Study,” Hydrogeology Journal, vol. 14, pp. 1330-1338, 2006.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[21] Yoshihide Wada et al., “Global Depletion of Groundwater Resources,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 37, no. 20, pp. 1-5, 2010.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[22] S.N. Rai, and A. Manglik, “An Analytical Solution of Boussinesq Equation to Predict Water Table Fluctuations Due to Time-Varying Recharge and Withdrawal from Multiple Basins, Wells and Leakage Sites,” Water Resources Management, vol. 26, pp. 243-252, 2012.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[23] Dilip Kumar, and Rajib Kumar Bhattacharjya, “Forecasting Groundwater Fluctuation from GRACE Data Using GRNN,” Soft Computing: Theories and Applications, Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, pp. 295-307, 2020.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[24] M. Rodell et al., “Emerging Trends in Global Freshwater Availability,” Nature, vol. 557, pp. 651-659, 2018.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[25] Hifsa Ghafoor et al., “Predicting Groundwater Levels at Colorado State of USA Using ARIMA and ANN Models,” Computer Science and Mathematics, pp. 1-13, 2023.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[26] Baltazar Leo Lozano Hernández et al., “A Systematic Review of the Current State of Numerical Groundwater Modeling in American Countries: Challenges and Future Research,” Hydrology, vol. 11, no. 11, pp. 1-18, 2024.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[27] Juan Antonio Torres-Martínez et al., “Advancing Groundwater Quality Predictions: Machine Learning Challenges and Solutions,” Science of the Total Environment, vol. 949, 2024.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[28] Meir Alkon et al., “High Resolution Prediction and Explanation of Groundwater Depletion across India,” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 19, no. 4, pp. 1-10, 2024.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[29] Amin Asadollahi et al., “The Impact of Climate Change and Urbanization on Groundwater Levels: A System Dynamics Model Analysis,” Environmental Protection Research, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 1-15, 2024.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[30] Mohammad Imran Azizi et al., “Impacts of Climate Change in Afghanistan and an Overview of Sustainable Development Efforts,” European Journal of Theoretical and Applied Sciences, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 495-516, 2024.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[31] Thi-My-Linh Ngo, Shih-Jung Wang, and Pei-Yuan Chen, “Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge Using Hydrological Modeling in the Choushui River Alluvial Fan, Taiwan,” Water, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 1-21, 2024.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[32] Hossein Tabari, “Climate Change Impacts Floods and Extreme Precipitation Increases with Water Availability,” Scientific Reports, vol. 10, pp. 1-10, 2020.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[33] Tom Gleeson et al., “Water Balance of Global Aquifers Revealed by Groundwater Footprint,” Nature, vol. 488, pp. 197-200, 2012.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[34] Maya Costantini, Jeanne Colin, and Bertrand Decharme, “Projected Climate‐Driven Changes of Water Table Depth in the World's Major Groundwater Basins,” Earth’s Future, vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 1-16, 2023.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[35] Guobin Fu, Rodrigo Rojas, and Dennis Gonzalez, “Trends in Groundwater Levels in alluvial Aquifers of the Murray–Darling Basin and their Attributions,” Water, vol. 14, no. 11, pp. 1-25, 2022.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[36] Xiaoli Lü et al., “Influence of Urbanization on Groundwater Chemistry at Lanzhou Valley Basin in China,” Minerals, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 1-16, 2022.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[37] Riki Sarma, and S.K. Singh, “Temporal Variation of Groundwater Levels by Time Series Analysis for NCT of Delhi, India,” Advances in Water Resources Transportation Engineering, pp. 191-203, 2021.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[38] India Groundwater: A Valuable but Diminishing Resource, [Online]. Available: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2012/03/06/india-groundwater-critical-diminishing, 2012.
[39] Alexandra S. Richey et al., “Quantifying Renewable Groundwater Stress with GRACE,” Water Resources Research, vol. 51, no. 7, pp. 5217-5238, 2015.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]