Optimal Probability Distribution Models for Wind Speed Prediction: Strategies to Advance Wind Energy Development in Vietnam
| International Journal of Electrical and Electronics Engineering |
| © 2025 by SSRG - IJEEE Journal |
| Volume 12 Issue 1 |
| Year of Publication : 2025 |
| Authors : Sang Ngoc Dinh, Anh Viet Truong, Linh Tung Nguyen |
10.14445/23488379/IJEEE-V12I1P103
How to Cite?
Sang Ngoc Dinh, Anh Viet Truong, Linh Tung Nguyen, "Optimal Probability Distribution Models for Wind Speed Prediction: Strategies to Advance Wind Energy Development in Vietnam," SSRG International Journal of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 17-24, 2025. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/23488379/IJEEE-V12I1P103
Abstract:
This paper aims to provide data and propose viable strategies for effectively harnessing wind energy by introducing probabilistic models for wind speed prediction. The objective is to improve the accuracy of wind speed forecasts, thereby mitigating risks for stakeholders and building investor confidence in the development of wind energy. This aligns with the Vietnamese government's strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, aiming to achieve 23,896 MW of wind power capacity by 2030, including 75% onshore and 25% offshore wind power. Wind speed data measured in a locality in Vietnam from 2017 to 2022 were evaluated using fitting methods and goodness of fit methods to determine the most appropriate probability distribution model. Findings indicate that the Gamma model best fits this locality under short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasting scenarios. However, it is suggested that the Normal distribution model should be slightly prioritized in medium-term and long-term scenarios, whereas the Generalized Extreme Value model is found to be the least suitable.
Keywords:
Wind energy, Wind speed forecast, Probability distribution, Energy development strategy, Renewable.
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