How Likely is an Economic Depression?

International Journal of Economics and Management Studies

© 2020 by SSRG - IJEMS Journal

Volume 7 Issue 3

Year of Publication : 2020

Authors : Camilo Sarmiento

10.14445/23939125/IJEMS-V7I3P117

How to Cite?

Camilo Sarmiento, "How Likely is an Economic Depression?," SSRG International Journal of Economics and Management Studies, vol. 7,  no. 3, pp. 115-121, 2020. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/23939125/IJEMS-V7I3P117

Abstract:

This paper uses a panel vector-autoregressive (VAR) process with different distributional assumptions to forecast GDP contraction severities and identify the likelihood of a depression threshold event across main Latin American countries.  We compare these results to similar hypothetical events for U.S., U.K., France, and Canada.This paper uses a panel vector-autoregressive (VAR) process with different distributional assumptions to forecast GDP contraction severities and identify the likelihood of a depression threshold event across main Latin American countries.  We compare these results to similar hypothetical events for U.S., U.K., France, and Canada.

Keywords:

Economic Depression, Latin America, Tail Event, Vector Autoregressive Model.

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