Ponorogo Prediction of Capital Shift of Private Vehicles And Buss To Rail Transport As Implication of Reactivation Plan For Madiun – Ponorogo Indonesia

International Journal of Economics and Management Studies

© 2021 by SSRG - IJEMS Journal

Volume 8 Issue 1

Year of Publication : 2021

Authors : Nanda Ahda Imron, Ary putra Iswanto, Arinda Leliana, Septiana Widi Astuti

10.14445/23939125/IJEMS-V8I1P115

How to Cite?

Nanda Ahda Imron, Ary putra Iswanto, Arinda Leliana, Septiana Widi Astuti, "Ponorogo Prediction of Capital Shift of Private Vehicles And Buss To Rail Transport As Implication of Reactivation Plan For Madiun – Ponorogo Indonesia," SSRG International Journal of Economics and Management Studies, vol. 8,  no. 1, pp. 155-159, 2021. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/23939125/IJEMS-V8I1P115

Abstract:

Railway services are increasingly being needed. This triggered the government to prepare a National Railway Master Plan (RIPNAS) in which various plans for the construction of new railways were included, including the reactivation of existing and inactive railway lines, one of which was the Madiun - Slahung train route, which according to the document would be undertaken in 2025. An analysis is carried out to support the railway development to predict the modal shift to the railway mode when the route becomes truly active. The binary logit method can be analyzed the probability of modal shift from motorbike to train, car to train, and bus to train. If the cost of transportation using a train is Rp.10,000 lower than that of a motorbike, the probability of using a motorbike will be 84%, 16% of motorbike users will switch to using the train. If the cost of transportation by train is Rp.10,000 lower than that of a car, then the probability of using a car will be 57%, 43% of car users will switch to using the train. If the cost of transportation using rail is the same as by bus, then the probability of using rail is 93%.

Keywords:

reactivation, modal shift, binary logit.

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