Forecast and Analysis of Population Growth in Hunan Province of China Based on ARMA Model

International Journal of Humanities and Social Science

© 2019 by SSRG - IJHSS Journal

Volume 6 Issue 3

Year of Publication : 2019

Authors : Changyi Bao, Shan Huang

10.14445/23942703/IJHSS-V6I3P106

How to Cite?

Changyi Bao, Shan Huang, "Forecast and Analysis of Population Growth in Hunan Province of China Based on ARMA Model," SSRG International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, vol. 6,  no. 3, pp. 29-32, 2019. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/23942703/IJHSS-V6I3P106

Abstract:

China's Hunan Province is located in the south, although the area is not wide, but the population is large. According to the data of the sixth
national census, the resident population of Hunan Province in 2010 was about 56.8 million, accounting for 4.87% of the national total, ranking seventh in the country, and the population aging population in Hunan ranked sixth in the country. The problem of population size and population structure seriously
restricts the sustainable development of Hunan's economy. Therefore, using the ARMA model to conduct an expected analysis of the future population
of Hunan Province, the results show that the total population of Hunan Province is relatively stable in the next three years.

Keywords:

ARMA model, population, prediction

References:

[1] 郭敏,田荟,张施伟. 我国人口出生率预测——基于ARIMA 模型分析[J].现代经济信息,2018(19):4-6.
[2] 田艳君,周玉健,吴佳灏. 就业风险与就业身份选择——基于 湖南省2015—2016 年流动人口动态监测数据[J]. 调研世
界,2017(09):14-19.
[3] Guangtao Zhou. The Influence of China's Population Aging on Economic Growth[A]. Institute of Management Science and Industrial Engineering. Proceedings of 2018 International Conference on Economics,Finance,Business,and Development(ICEFBD 2018) [C]. Institute of Management Science
and Industrial Engineering: 计算机科学与电子技术国际学会 (Computer Science and Electronic Technology International Society),2018:4.