To What Extent is the Outcome of Competitive Congressional Elections Dependent on Campaign Spending?

International Journal of Humanities and Social Science

© 2022 by SSRG - IJHSS Journal

Volume 9 Issue 4

Year of Publication : 2022

Authors : Abhishek Mukherjee

10.14445/23942703/IJHSS-V9I4P110

How to Cite?

Abhishek Mukherjee, "To What Extent is the Outcome of Competitive Congressional Elections Dependent on Campaign Spending?," SSRG International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, vol. 9,  no. 4, pp. 68-77, 2022. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/23942703/IJHSS-V9I4P110

Abstract:

There have been varying responses regarding whether campaign spending affects electoral outcomes. This paper focuses on competitive House elections in 2018 as identified by the Cook Political Report, leaving 104 districts. Multivariable regression was run, where the dependent variable was the margin of victory of each race. The independent variables were campaign expenditure, general political lean of the district, incumbency, income growth, education level, racial composition and population density. With an R-squared value of 64%, the independent variables did have a statistically significant effect on the margin of victory. The campaign expenditure, general political lean and education level were statistically significant in predicting the race's margin of victory, while the other variables were not. When focusing on the districts where Republicans were incumbents, the amount spent by the Democrats affected electoral outcomes, while the amount spent by the Republicans did not. When looking at open seats, the campaign spending seemed not to affect the margin of victory; however, this could be biased by the small sample size. Overall, this campaign spending matters the most for challengers in races where they are incumbents.

Keywords:

Campaign spending, Elections, Politics, United States.

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