EuroSCORE overestimated cardiac surgery related mortality: Comparing EuroSCORE model and Bayesian approach using new generalized probabilistic model with new form of prior information

International Journal of Medical Science

© 2016 by SSRG - IJMS Journal

Volume 3 Issue 12

Year of Publication : 2016

Authors : Jamal A. Al-Saleh, Satish K. Agarwal and Rashed Al-Bannay

10.14445/23939117/IJMS-V3I12P101

How to Cite?

Jamal A. Al-Saleh, Satish K. Agarwal and Rashed Al-Bannay, "EuroSCORE overestimated cardiac surgery related mortality: Comparing EuroSCORE model and Bayesian approach using new generalized probabilistic model with new form of prior information," SSRG International Journal of Medical Science, vol. 3,  no. 12, pp. 1-7, 2016. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/23939117/IJMS-V3I12P101

Abstract:

Objectives: An attempt is made to suggest an alternative approach using Bayesian analysis in predicting the mortality during cardiac surgery. The risk index predicted through Bayesian approach is compared with the traditional approach EuroSCORE Model for known data sets available in the internet [see [4]]. Methods: The overall mortality related to cardiac surgery was traced from 2002 to 2012.The data was extracted from the official blue book website of the Society for Cardiothoracic Surgery in Great Britain & Ireland. The cohort included patients who underwent cardiac surgery in NHS hospital and other private hospitals in U.K. During each year, the true mortality, predicted mortality by EuroSCORE, and estimated mortality through Bayesian approach were compared. Results: Overall mortality rates derived from EuroSCORE Model were much higher (more than double) of true reported mortality rate for the period 2006 to 2012, and almost 60% higher for the period 2003 to 2005, than the true mortality reported by the Society for Cardiothoracic Surgery in Great Britain & Ireland in its official website. While the Bayesian approach predicted mortality rates estimates that are more consistent, significantly lower than the one estimated by EuroSCORE, and much closer to the reported true mortality. Conclusions: Mortality rate post-surgery is considered a quality metric to hospitals. Bayesian approach provides greater advantage over EuroSCORE in predicting mortality post cardiac surgery. Both are noticed to overestimate the real surgical risk, being less with the Bayesians. Bayesian approach is an alternative predictor to estimate mortality post cardiac surgery and should be verified by further research.

Keywords:

Bayesian Analysis, Cardiac Surgery Activity, Data Analysis, EuroSCORE Model, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Mortality Rate, Informative Prior.

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